1) Even if the polling methodology is valid, about 1 in 20 polls is just going to come up bad. This poll is a definately outlier, and shouldn’t be believed unless more polls agree with it.

2) Does anyone know what a “likely voter” is this time out? Odds are good blacks will turn out in greater numbers than ever before, while conservative Republicans, at the moment, would appear to be more likely to sit on their duffs than vote McCain. We have no idea if the youth vote, which finally has a cause and figure to rally around, will finally make good on their pledges, or go to the nearest kegger instead of voting, like the always do. We are still waiting to see if Hillary Voters continue to carry their grudge, and I’m not sure anyone knows how having a (sort of) black man on the ballot will influence the hispanic vote, asian vote, Jewish vote, or blue collar union vote.

Considering the religious fervor of many of his followers it does lead one to consider the AC question.

*runs and hides from the accusations of “religious kook”*

Seniors vote about 75% participation (registered voters). Youth? Less than half.

Obama is stronger among Youth than Seniors, who he has a LOT of problems with (and who his youth and youth-oriented stuff turns off).”

Very good point. The thing that will backfire too is the fact that what is the one thing the left is going after McCain about? His age. They make fun of his age and senior citizens won’t be laughing when they step into the voting booth.

And to Obama’s credit, he put his whole plan right up there on the internet for all to read. None of that seems to matter; they are under the impression that voting for a hyphenated American will somehow absolve them of all their racial sins they have been convinced they have committed. Or their parents… or grand parents… or great great great grandparents… or that time they didn’t open the door for that black guy with his hands full. It is true they were looking after their kids and didn’t see him but they know deep down the real reason is that they are racist. Because, you know it is all institutionalized.

I don’t think there’s much of a mystery. He’s able to get away with more bullsh*t than other politicians because calling him out on it would be, like, racist or something. That’s the implied threat. He has mastered the art of race blackmail.

Obama is stronger among Youth than Seniors, who he has a LOT of problems with (and who his youth and youth-oriented stuff turns off).

It’s not as if I blogged about it here:

http://whiskeys-place.blogspot.com/2008/06/can-barack-obama-win-with-youth-vote.html

Obama draws the Pauline Kael type-vote. [Kael was a NYT film critic famous for wondering how Reagan won against Carter when no one she knew on the Upper East Side voted for him.]

I know … read twice, post once. :p

http://beartotheright.blogspot.com/

Some poops and giggles fun from the MoveOn.Now army of one:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=We-zF6RThHY