Rasmussen: After Abysmal Week McCain Strong
Posted by Dirty Harry on Monday, September 22nd, 2008
After a full week of a perfect storm of awful news somehow McCain hangs on:
National: Obama +1
Pennsylvania: Obama +3
Michigan: Obama +7
Virginia: McCain hits 50% and is ahead by 2 … Still, WTF is going on in VA?
Ohio: McCain hits 50% and leads by 4.
Florida: McCain hits 51% and leads by 5
There have been 2 polls out both showing Obama up in Virginia but it seems inconceivable McCain could be behind in Virginia but within 2 in both WI and MN.
You have to look at things this way: Unless there are photos of McCain in bed with underage boys this is about as bad a week as he could have. His support remains surprisingly strong considering, and when Obama pulls his forces from Montana and North Dakota to shore up MN and WI, as he did today, that tells you something — he’s playing defense.
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Stephanieon 22 Sep 2008 at 3:44 pm 1I told you what was going on in VA. No worries.
godzirraon 22 Sep 2008 at 3:55 pm 2DH - Here’s another metric to handicap the race:
The number of “attack” skits on the current abysmal Saturday Night Live. The more angry, unfunny, demeaning skits about McCain/Palin, the further ahead they are in the race.
They took another pot shot directly at McCain, and completely in line with the “lie” meme from the MSM’s week-long attack:
http://www.hulu.com/watch/35497/saturday-night-live-mccain-approves-open
The idea for the skit was actually delivered by non other than former SNLer Al Franken.
They’ve taken on Hillary. They’ve hit Palin and now McCain. We all know how they treated President Bush. They even made fun of Bubba back when he was running for office.
I’m still waiting for the skit where they actually make fun of Obama.
wanketteon 22 Sep 2008 at 3:55 pm 3Check out the NRA TV ad on hotair.com.
Johnny Ed's Babyon 22 Sep 2008 at 4:12 pm 4Despite what they say on MSNBC, Obama has only a 3% advantage over McCain when it comes to the economy. And if the McCain camp gets it’s message out that Bush and he were trying to reform FNMA & FMac in 2005 while Frank & Shumer were protecting them, Obama will go down in flames.
Always check the breakdown by party in these polls. Gallup has seemed to overweight Dems, especially lately.
But when Michelle Obama draws 400 people to a rally in Havana’s sister city of Madison, WI while Palin draws 60,000 in FL, I wouldn’t put too much reliance on polls if I were a Democrat.
Stephanieon 22 Sep 2008 at 4:20 pm 5Michelle only drew 400 people in our Badger state? WHOOWHOOOOOOOOO awesome. AWESOME!
BTW look for Obama to run a campaign now for electoral votes. Hence his pulling out of smaller states like Montana and North Dakota. I think after last weeks interesting Obama volunteer email being posted here about pulling volunteers out of VA for PA and now Montana and ND going Obamaless that he is running not for total popular vote but for electoral votes. Interestingly enough the polls are showing a similiar gap they did in 2004. However If Mac is hitting California like he has been something is going on none of us have figured out. But as for VA is concerned, if Obama put the word out for Volunteers to leave VA to go to PA that says something. MY Mom in law is volunteering in PA and she says the people are pumped to vote for McCain.
PerfectTommyon 22 Sep 2008 at 4:22 pm 6Right now, it’s all about the debates. (Look for further insights at www.obvious.com.)
voodooon 22 Sep 2008 at 4:24 pm 7Thanks to DH’s inspiration:
‘Unless there are photos of McCain in bed with underage boys this is about as bad a week as he could have. ‘
Obama’s minions are firing up Photoshop on their Mac’s all across the fruited plain (or at least on the two coasts).
David Marcoeon 22 Sep 2008 at 4:31 pm 8If McCain and Palin bring their “A” game and these debates draw the type of audience the convention speeches did, Team O. is in big trouble…
Shawn Streeton 22 Sep 2008 at 4:55 pm 9The media’s reaction to Virginia is beyond laughable. I saw a thing on Fox News the other day and the pollster said Virginia is swinging toward the Dems and the evidence is the fact that VA has a Dem governor. Uh, lived in VA all my life and the fact of the matter is, we’ve had TWO Republican governors in the last 28 years! VA always votes for Dems for governor and smart people for president.
billypaintbrushon 22 Sep 2008 at 4:59 pm 10only 400 in Madison? she should have announced beforehand she was bringing a bong and cheetos.
wow, man
Johnny Ed's Babyon 22 Sep 2008 at 5:18 pm 11billy:
Well the AP reported 1,800 there but the picture was posted at Althouse a half hour after the rally was supposed to start and when I blew it up I estimated 375-400.
And knowing this is Madison, most people probably brought their own bongs and cheetos. Heck, they probably had a concession stand selling them together.
Hawkon 22 Sep 2008 at 5:49 pm 12I have lived in Virginia for 57 years. The only way Obama is over 40% is the Northern Virginia suburbs and the I-64 corridor from Richmond to Hampton Roads. Sarah Palin has energized the conservatives in the state. McCain will carry the state in November.
Plissken79on 22 Sep 2008 at 6:24 pm 13Keep on an eye on New England’s “rogue state” as well, McCain is popular in New Hampshire, and right now it looks like he has slim lead:
http://www.unionleader.com/article.aspx?headline=UNH+poll%3a+McCain+has+taken+the+lead+(maybe)&articleId=c2afd237-ed4e-4389-a6e1-5c6ce9559107
Danilaon 22 Sep 2008 at 6:42 pm 14Hmm, I think a lot of people are mad over this 700 billion dollar bailout. People on both sides of the aisle are hopping mad. For goodness sakes, at FreeRepublic right now they’re agreeing with a press release put out by ANSWER.
So far this has hurt McCain a bit but I actually think he could win the election on this if he takes the reins. Because Obama is on the wrong side of this issue. All he’ll say is that “homeowners should get money too”, that’s all the Democrats have to say, just throw more money on the pile. He came out and supported the bailout completely, while McCain has been arguing against it from the start.
People are desperate for leadership right now. That’s the one thing that isn’t beholden to party lines…people want leadership more than anything. Strength and confidence. Obama doesn’t have that right now. We know he’s always been an empty suit, but just look how badly he handled the “Palin crisis” and how petty his campaign has become. They look like children. Where’s all that gravitas and (faux)wisdom now? This man never likes to get specific, he never lays out his plans. But where’s the plan for the future? What’s to stop this from happening again? That’s what EVERYONE wants to know! And Obama has no answers.
I am confident that McCain knows what he would do if he were President (unlike Obama, who just wants to notch another title but won’t take a stand for anything). Shoot, he’s been thinking about it for years, and has tried to be a leader even if it made him a maverick. I won’t lie, there’ve been many times I couldn’t stand him. He’s not Specter-levels of duplicitous evil, he’s just annoying and I don’t agree with him on everything. But if people are looking for new ideas, he’s the one with the ideas, not Obama. McCain is the one with true reforms, not Obama. It’s what McCain has been doing for years and years.
McCain’s genuinely mad about the economy like the rest of us, not just using it for points like Obama. I think McCain is going to own this subject in the debates. MSM expects him to do badly because everyone is blaming Republicans for this, but both McCain and Palin should shine on the issue of the economic crisis.
Ohio Wolverine momon 22 Sep 2008 at 7:19 pm 15Yeah,but the Cuomo remark has gotto hurt—know I said “ouch!”when I heard it….then re-visited the 60,0000 post.
People who don’t go to movies anymore are fired up about American Carol—my mom is getting a group of friends together for a matinee showing, then going again at night with my dad—-a good idea I might copy, but I’m new in town.
scuffleon 22 Sep 2008 at 7:39 pm 16Really, Danila?
For him or against him, I’d have thought that everyone would have agreed that McCain struggles with economic issues. This is genuinely the first time I’ve heard (well, read) anyone arguing that this field is anything other than his Achille’s Heel. The debates will certainly be interesting.
As an aside, this quote from the original article is interesting:
You have to look at things this way: Unless there are photos of McCain in bed with underage boys this is about as bad a week as he could have
The way things are going, does anyone think that the appearance of such photos would change a thing? Honestly, hand-on-heart? This is far too much of a team game; America be damned, it’s about having the badges and stickers and rooting for your side. Hence the support Sarah Palin’s getting. This entire race is absolutely ridiculous.
scuffleon 22 Sep 2008 at 7:40 pm 17Now, I definitely closed the bold tag that time…
danilaon 22 Sep 2008 at 8:52 pm 18Against random person, I wouldn’t bet on McCain on economics issues. Against Obama, I would. Not only is Obama in this Fannie/Freddie mess up to his neck (something the MSM may not report, but McCain can still push in ads and possibly debates), but Obama is letting the Congress Democrats run this for him. This last news week didn’t help McCain but Obama didn’t do anything with it at all. He’s abdicated leadership, he’s towing the party line, and he’s trying to coast.
I also don’t think McCain is averse to saying things that would tick off Republicans. The Cuomo thing is a prime example. But quite frankly, I think Republicans understand that McCain is who he is, and if they want the new Reagan it’s Palin they look to, and not McCain. However, a lot of what McCain could say would make moderate Democrats and Independents like him even more. They already like him, they always have liked McCain for some reason I never could fathom. That’s why he’s so competitive in places like New Hampshire.
McCain can be a leader with this economic crisis. This is an issue people will pay attention to, regardless of what the MSM wants people to know. They will pay attention to what the candidates say about this because people feel very strongly about it. McCain obviously doesn’t like the bailout (putting him in line with 93% of Americans who don’t support it), and he is the one who has always pushed serious, genuine reforms (for good and ill, he’s always been a reformer).
Congress is a mess, an absolute untrustworthy mess, and this is their mess more than it’s Bush’s mess. I think for the first time in a long time people are paying attention to Congress again. And everybody’s mad, liberals, garden-variety democrats, republicans, conservatives of all stripes, marxists and capitalists. They’re all mad and they’re looking at Congress. Palin is not a member of Congress so this is one thing she doesn’t have to contend against (although her independence and plain-folksness is an asset), but the other three are all Senators. Biden has been neutered. Obama has neutered himself. McCain can be a leader. He has the advantage of having been on top of this one issue (regulation and oversight) for years when no one would listen.
Not saying he has to say something that everyone will agree with (impossible). But he’s already said some things that demonstrate the vision and strength necessary in a leader for all as opposed to a partisan (i.e. appointing a trilateral oversight commission made up of a Republican, Democrat and Independent).
I’m not even talking about any particular economic proposal, I’m talking about leadership. They say people vote for shallow reasons, and maybe it’s true that most people don’t look at all the specifics of policies and whatnot, but the country knows what it needs and people get a feel for what kind of President you’d be. Right now, some people are projecting onto Obama the President they want rather than what he’d be. Obama has settled now. McCain needs to one-up again, and prove the point of all those leadership ads he runs.
Ronsonicon 22 Sep 2008 at 10:22 pm 19I told y’all, don’t panic.
Oh, and expect that McCain is going to baffle and/or infuriate you at least once more before the election. It’s his way.
That’s the thing with battered old warhorses, they got quirks.
I don’t think we can afford an Obama / Pelosi / Reid government for four years until the next generation of serious conservatives like Jindal and Palin are ready for a run on their own, so I’ll put up with McCain and the occasional need to clean up from the blood shooting out of my ears.
Stephanieon 23 Sep 2008 at 3:49 am 20Danila,
Dont worry about Scuffs. He is our random Marxist who comes around and shows people why he shouldn’t be allowed near a computer with net capabilities. Its easy for him to broadcast to all the fact that he defines the word fool.
Ezrajon 23 Sep 2008 at 6:24 am 21Careful what you say there. You might become a source for someone at dailyKos claiming that there ARE photos of McCain in bed with underage boys.