Gallup Final Presidential Estimate: Obama 55%, McCain 44%
Posted by Dirty Harry on Sunday, November 2nd, 2008
Yeah. McCain’s gonna lose by 11 with all the swing states within the margin of error, and closing.
Yeah. McCain’s gonna lose by 11 when he’s only down 3 in Minnesota.
Yeah. McCain’s gonna lose by 11 when RCP was just forced to move VA and OH from “lean-Obama” back to toss-ups.
I repeat: Please.
UPDATE: Logic from a reader:
Gallup predicts 55% Obama and 44% McCain in its final poll. The lead in this final poll is based mostly on the10% party ID advantage it assumes for Democrats: 39% Democrat, 29% Republican, and 31% Independents. If we assume the three percent advantage Democrats experienced in the 2006 Congressional elections, Gallup’s final results would be 52% to 48% not the 11% they report. The differences in the various pollsters’ findings have to do with differences in their assumptions of party ID.
Good heavens, Gallup themselves have new polls of early voters showing nothing that justifies a 10% party gap in favor of Democrats. It’s just … silly.
Filed in General |
spiffon 02 Nov 2008 at 9:38 pm 1I think this calls for a “Serenity now!”
Bennett Marcoon 02 Nov 2008 at 9:39 pm 2Baltimore Colts -18 over New York Jets: Superbowl III line.
Zundfolgeon 02 Nov 2008 at 9:41 pm 3So if they’re wrong are they going to close up shop and go away?
No, and people will STILL quote their numbers as though they mean something (this also goes for Rasmussen, Zogby and the rest of the crooked pollsters).
Moon 02 Nov 2008 at 9:43 pm 4Can we stop with this polling nonsense already?!
Why does ANYONE even care about this? What possible effect does it have on what people will do on Tuesday?
It’s just ridiculous.
Carolynon 02 Nov 2008 at 9:45 pm 5Those numbers are a LIE!
Utter, total lie.
And another thing - that liar is scared out of his wits. His bus was supposed to take him to the White House but instead it’s going off a cliff. This lie is his death scream!
Those numbers are a LIE!
Nicol Don 02 Nov 2008 at 9:47 pm 6See ya in four years.
Some things I think I have learned in the past stretch due to some personal work experiences I have had…
…Obama will get in because enough Evangelicals and Catholics have bought his garbage and actually believe him. They have been the tipping point. I have met many (far too many) conservative Christians who have actually bought into his rubbish and genuinely believe he is one of them.
This has made me lose much respect for the Christian movement and suspect that maybe many of them were as dumb as the media made them out to be after all. Seems that many Evangelicals really do only need to hear the word “Christian” to think you are one of them.
Flip side…Obama will not hide how left wing he is once he is in office. He is too arrogant. I look forward to next Christmas when Barack refuses to light up the tree and changes many American traditions. How will America react then?
America is about to enter a phase that Canada might slowly be growing out of…that of extreme left wing political correctness. If you had told me 4 years ago that in 2008 Canada would have a conservative PM bringing itself back to the fold while America elected a neo-Marxist former academic who based his views on queer theory, Marxist oppression theory and racial politics I would have laughed. But here we are and that is exactly what is about to happen.
I love America and wish you all the best. This will not be an easy four years for you in America. But…you will get through it. Canada is gradually (perhaps too gradually)coming out if its leftist 60’s haze…you will too.
God bless.
Today however, I am proud to a Canadian.
whiskeyon 02 Nov 2008 at 10:03 pm 7The poll might be accurate, it might not be. So many polls don’t make sense — including men going for Obama over McCain by ten points. Even Dole took men, and White Men went for HIM over Clinton by ten.
If Obama wins, and he might, it will because Single White Women, who are ground zero for Uber-PC, put him in. Pretty much most Single White Women go in for PC and Multiculti stuff big time, they are also it’s chief enforcers. If you want to know the enthusiasm for the Oprah-View-Ellen-esque Shaman in Chief, look at the Gender Gap and women’s vote.
Demographics are against Republicans — Married Women vote Republican, Single Women Democratic, and there are more Single Women than Married. Indeed, the future holds single motherhood as the way in which most children will be raised.
Obama’s biggest advantage is that he is running in 2008, not 2004, and there are just far more single women.
However, it’s not a done deal, there is still hope, prayer would not hurt, and anything can happen. If you can volunteer tomorrow, do so.
Major Grahamon 02 Nov 2008 at 10:07 pm 8One last post on this gallup nonsense from NRO:
http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NjdlZGUzMDJkMTlmYzVhZDQyNTYzNTY2NDg4NmM0MWM=
Good night all. See you tomorrow evening.
Carolynon 02 Nov 2008 at 10:15 pm 9Nicol?
NO one who’s evangelical or Catholic have ‘bought this garbage’ from Obama. If they did that, they’re neither. Period.
And BTW, fluff up the pillows in your guest room. Come Nov. 5th, you will need space for Sarandon, Robbins and Fonda who swear they’re fleeing to your lovely place if the Messiah loses. Of course, I don’t expect those shits to be telling me the truth about their flight any more than those ‘evangelicals’ and ‘Catholics’ told you the truth about their faith. Hmmm, lying. There’s a lot of it going around nowadays.
Conan O'Lenomanon 02 Nov 2008 at 10:22 pm 10Come Tuesday it’ll be rainin’ McCain.
Marxists are masters of lies and deception. They can never be elected by being honest.
laconicon 02 Nov 2008 at 10:31 pm 11Carolyn,
The numbers are not a lie. The method of obtaining them is flawed. It assumes huge youth turnout and there isn’t indication of that in any in the early balloting results. It assumes a full democrat turnout all going to Obama and no Hillary supporters crossing over. That also is an error in sampling. But the huge reported statistical advantage to Obama is going to cause problems for him. The most fickle voters are the oversampled youth voters and if they think its a lock they wont bother.
Don’t see it as bad news, see it as another advantage because it will keep his disciples out of the ballot box. I wrote earlier this week about Spike Lee’s smarmy mouthing off to Reggie Miller in the playoff between the Knicks and Pacers in 1995. Knicks were up by 6 with 16.4 seconds to play and Spike Lee stood on the sidelines shouting abuse and goading Reggie Miller. Reggie shot 8 points in 8.9 seconds and the Knicks were toast. McCain is Reggie Miller and we are going to shove it down their throats. The comments of Obama today about answering media questions on Wednesday show his arrogance and contempt for us and his lap dog media.
The coal comments, his Illegal immigrant aunt living in poverty, his missing uncle, his half brother living in a hut and destitute, are all fresh stories this week. It all helps. Its not over by along shot and when you see the people he turns his back on and see those he chooses to stay palls with, it shows a pattern that Stevie Wonder could see.
Major Grahamon 02 Nov 2008 at 10:32 pm 12Uhh - no. Sampling is 38% dem to 26% republican. This is a push-poll attempting to create self-fulfilling prophecy. Unbelievable!
laconicon 02 Nov 2008 at 10:34 pm 13whiskey
I would agree with your comments IF he gets in, if you just change it to simple white women.
But he won’t get in
Major Grahamon 02 Nov 2008 at 10:35 pm 14Nicol D - you are wrong about teh one getting the evangelical and catholic vote. He is actually a point behind John Kerry’s number. In 2004 Kerry got only 29% of voters who attended church regularly (ie - once a week). Teh one is only getting 28%. As an evangelical I don’t know of a single person who is voting for obambi. There are a few of them to be sure. But Mac sewed that vote up when he picked Sarah - an evangelical herself.
Major Grahamon 02 Nov 2008 at 10:37 pm 15From a poster called McPalin08 at Ace for a little more on the gallup bs:
“Gallup predicts 55% Obama and 44% McCain in its final poll. The lead in this final poll is based mostly on the10% party ID advantage it assumes for Democrats: 39% Democrat, 29% Republican, and 31% Independents. If we assume the three percent advantage Democrats experienced in the 2006 Congressional elections, Gallup’s final results would be 52% to 48% not the 11% they report. The differences in the various pollsters’ findings have to do with differences in their assumptions of party ID.
Rasmussen, for instance, assumes 40% Democrats, 33% Republicans and 27% independents. With his numbers, Gallup’s results would change to
54% to 46%. Note how the final result closely tracks the difference in party ID. If you assume a 10% party ID advantage you get a 10% lead in polls. If you assume a 7% party ID advantage you get a 7%
lead. If you assume a 3% party ID advantage you end up with a 3% lead. Thus, Gallup’s head-line grabbing numbers are all due to the assumption it is making on party ID. Other main stream media organizations (ABC, CBS, NBC, NY Times, Washington Post, CNN, etc.,) are making very similar assumptions. That is why they are reporting such large leads for Obama. As a result, the RCP
average is not an average of independent observations with different assumptions. They all share the same assumptions and the same biases. The RCP average is as misleading as the polls that constitute it.”
Good stuff
Carolynon 02 Nov 2008 at 11:13 pm 16laconic - maybe I’m calling a pig a sow - but it still oinks.
Okay, granted the numbers themselves are not a lie - the problem is that the manner in which they were assembled IS - i.e., the pollsters did not honestly sample everyone but instead only those people who would give the pollsters the result they wanted. Ergo, if the means were untrue, then the end is untrue as well.
Which, in my tiny little mind, is simply a convoluted way of saying the end result is a ‘lie’. Oink!
skepticalon 03 Nov 2008 at 2:27 am 17The Star Tribune says he’s down 11 in Minnesota. But in either case, turn out your vote. Zogby over the weekend gave a long list of reasons to tell his friends in the blogsphere to tone it down.
I think it will be convincing, that democracy will work, and that the American public will repudiate the disastrous government of Bush and deliver more seats in Congress to the Democrats in both houses. I suspect that more will vote in this election than in any I’ve ever witnessed. Perhaps as many will vote for McCain as voted for Bush in the last election. Still, I think it will be decisive.
But I voted for Carter, Mondale, Dukakis, as well as Gore and Kerry. And my candidate lost my caucus, my state, and my party’s nomination.
Sometimes democracy is a bitch.
pandaxon 03 Nov 2008 at 3:12 am 18I saw a news article about how Obama was ahead in early voting. About halfway down the article mentions that most of the early voters it asked were….Democrats. So what this really should say is most early voting Democrats we asked are voting for Obama no it says Obama ahead in early voting.
TROon 03 Nov 2008 at 4:16 am 19Hell, if you poll 100% Dems Obama would win by 100%. Polling - the new main stream media.
Ginaon 03 Nov 2008 at 4:58 am 20Major Graham is right about the evangelical and Catholic statistics. I know a couple of Christians who have swallowed the Kool-Aid, which is infuriating, but if the Gallup poll has any reliability (of course, I understand that’s hard to believe right now!), it’s not a wide-ranging phenomenon.
When I was phone banking yesterday, I heard one of the guys there say that if you got an answering machine with “God bless you” or “Jesus loves you” on it, you didn’t even have to tell them to vote McCain, you just had to remind them to go vote on Tuesday, because WHO they would vote for was a given.
GMKon 03 Nov 2008 at 5:33 am 21The Bradley Effect is real, consistent, and not based in racism but the fear of accusations of it. It’s been worth up to nine points before. And that’s without a fascist media showing what happens to people who ask the wrong questions.
I live in Macomb County, which is the place where they originally identified “Reagan Democrats.” I saw Obama stickers for a while, I haven’t seen one in days. My best friend, who lost his job as a purchasing agent and is working at a food service type store, said everybody was enthusiastic about Obama a couple months ago and not a single one of them is voting Obama now. And it’s not because he has tried to talk them out of it either. He’s not the type.
One of my clients is automotive and filled with blue-collar skilled trades guys. There are three people out of about sixty who are known to be voting Democrat, and if anyone else is, they are keeping their mouths shut.
A chick from Clean Water Action (basically a communist outfit) came around pretending to wanting people to sign petitions for green energy and then asked my buddy if it was okay to ask who he was voting for. I was there in the room. He said “No you may not.” I told him after she left that his response pretty much encapsulates the main reason I think the polls are completely full of shit. Nobody wants to say they are voting McCain because they don’t want to invite a bunch of below-the-belt attacks on their motivations for doing so.
Here in my world, it’s a McCain landslide from everything I can see around me. I may be a professional and a consultant, but I am surrounded by working-class people constantly, and the vibe I am getting is not one of people being sold on the Messiah, but instead I hear constantly about how Joe has never voted in his life but is going to vote straight ticket Republican this year, and Joe is 43, etc. I’m a reflexively agnostic type and the media buzz never gets to me because I can see their religion at work as clearly as I can see other religions block off areas of inquiry for people. I don’t care what the polls or the media say; I know America from living here and I know the people around me and they are not voting Obama. I know the coastal write-off states are, but I don’t believe the rest of us will.
Stephanieon 03 Nov 2008 at 5:49 am 22I remember when Florida went for Gore. I was standing there watching the computers and the TVs and feeling sick to my stomach and then the guy running the computers said, wait…its too close. They shouldn’t have called Florida so early. Then RCP put her back into the toss up area and then Bush WON it. And then we had the big fiasco for 35 days.
Stephanieon 03 Nov 2008 at 5:51 am 23Skeptical your candidate got raked over teh coals and had her nomination stolen from her. No worries. We are gonna win this sucker. I know we are.
Ginaon 03 Nov 2008 at 6:24 am 24I remember that moment too, Steph. The number suddenly changed (the station I was watching changed it without saying why at first) and I was standing there going, “What the — am I seeing things?”
Quite a night.
Growltigeron 03 Nov 2008 at 6:59 am 25Nicol,
I attended a dinner/debate last week between Dems and Repubs (no one running tho’ Huckabee was one of the Republicans). Except for spousie and me, the table was all Evangelicals. No Obama voters. In the debate, the audience
heavily favored the Repub viewpoint. Two old hippies over to the right clapped for the Dems, but their applause was scattered. (This was open to the public — for a fee, of course).
A row of African-Americans two rows ahead of me were pro-Obama, of course. That’s about it. Not a scientific study, but you’ve been sold a bill of goods when you’ hear Evangelicals are voting Obama. They’re not. Palin fixed that.
Stephanie, remember calling FL for Gore was a mainstream media ploy (either they or the polling people they use) because they called FL for Gore BEFORE the polls closed in the Republican panhandle (which is on central time). This completely skewed FL (which I suspect was the point). Many Repubs in Western FL went home and didn’t vote (again the idea). They won’t be fooled like that again.
In 04, the media tried a different ploy. They “leaked” a landslide for Kerry here on the East Coast. I remember how my heart sank when I logged on the computer and read how Kerry had blown out the whole east coast. This was after polls closed here, but were still open in Central, Mountain and Pacific time. Again, another media attempt to fix the election.
We can’t be disheartened by polls at this late date. We weren’t two weeks ago when McCain really was in trouble and we all knew it.
Glennon 03 Nov 2008 at 9:01 am 26Is anyone here familiar with the concept of standard deviation? As a sociology student (that’s what my bachelors is in) I became closely familiar with the pitfalls of juggling numbers across multiple surveys.
We have multiple surveys using different methodologies and different base assumptions (particularly the turnout model). Of course they vary widely. Here’s my point. The conservative blogs (such as DHP) are cherry-picking the ones that favor Mac, to show how close things are. The left-wing blogs (including the European press, such as the Guardian) are cherry-picking the ones that show Obama far ahead.
It comes down to electoral votes, not total votes. The problem is that Obama STILL commands a significant lead in so many states that went to Bush in 2004. Unless the polls are total bullcrap, Obama has enough EV’s in the bag to win. Put another way, if Mac WINS Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida and Virginia, Obama STILL has more than 270 EVs. It’s sad but true.
Mant people seem to believe that if Mac can take PA, he wins. That’s not the case.
Don’t be baffled by this. It’s easy to understand why this is so if you keep in mind that most voters do not want to take the time to understand issues. They form their opinions based on sound bites and one or two paragraphs read on the train.
Most people (not all people) believe that
1. Obama is a moderate.
2. Obama will lower taxes.
3. Obama has a solid record of achievement. Somewhere. In something.
4. The stories you hear about Obama being friends with terrorists are wild distortions from the other side, who are so desperate to win they’ll say anything. The man was eight years old when those bombs went off, for Pete’s sake. And should YOU be held responsible for everything your minister says?
5. McCain is basically like Bush.
6. McCain wants to lower taxes . . . on oil companies. Not regular people.
7 McCain is too old.
The above remains conventional wisdom for tens of millions of voters across the nation. On Wednesday morning, people will be too stunned for words and wondering, “How could Obama have won after we told everybody about Ayers and Wright? And Obama wants to bankrupt the oil companies? And his aunti is an illegal alien? How could he have won?”
If that happens to you, look at the seven points above. Millions of people who voted for Bush twice believe most or all of the points above. It all comes down to the dishonest media.
Mike Kriskeyon 03 Nov 2008 at 9:33 am 27Wow, Glenn, that’s quite a lot of condescension in one short post.
You’re pretty good at maintaining your tone, though. Yup, I’m convinced that as a typical staunch conservative with a degree in sociology (oops! let that one slip, huh?) you’ll be crushed when McCain loses.
Could you explain one thing to poor, uneducated me? Do assumptions made regarding respective voter turnout matter? If those assumptions are wrong, could that maybe affect the accuracy of the polls? Make sure to use small words when you answer.
I don’t have my head in the sand. I know McCain’s a long shot. But if hope were easy, it wouldn’t be a virtue, would it?
Stephanieon 03 Nov 2008 at 9:37 am 28Glenn your an idiot. I am not kidding you. Sociology degree…awesome…fancy freaking stationary.
Here is the deal, even in CA Republicans are coming out of the wood work to vote for McCain….in Nevada they are saying that Dems are coming out to vote for McCain.
Everything this fraud has said is WRONG WRONG WRONG! And frankly I am sick of it. I don’t trust you GLENN and there are more reasons than I can name but your mantra of garbage with no real evidence besides what teh DNC and the ass’ in the media are saying is beyond insufferable.
Makes me wonder GLENN what your real motives are?
Stephanieon 03 Nov 2008 at 9:39 am 29The only standard deviation here GLENN is your bs.
Glennon 03 Nov 2008 at 9:58 am 30Yes, Mike, I am the only person in human history to graduate in sociology and be conservative (actually, a classic liberal). My conversion from teenage leftist to conservative took place between ages 17, 18, and 19. At age 17 I refused to stand for the Pledge of Alligence. At age 20 I voted for Ronald Reagan.
My point is that any time you have more than one poll, especially with different methodology, the SD will likely be significant. I don’t have the data to figure it but it seems to be about five points. That means that some polls differ by 10 or more points too. This makes it easy to cherry-pick the poll you want to back up your position - either Mac is very close to victory, or Obama maintains a commanding lead.
Me? I don’t know where we stand. My stomach is in knots.
Yet I see plenty of people kidding themselves that Mac is winning. NONE of the polls show that. None.
My motivation? I want to see if I can help prevent some of my fellow conservatives from embarrassing us when (as is very likely but not certain) Obama wins. I don’t want to see people on my side acting as the moonbats did in 2000 and (to a lesser extent) in 2004.
“They stole the election!”
“Democracy is dead!”
“I am so ashamed of all the stupid people in this country!”
We heard all of the above from the left when they lost - I don’t want to hear it from our side. I am trying to explain the “why” behind an Obama victory pre-emptively. It seems to me that very few people here spend time talking politics with people who DISAGREE with them - so they cannot imagine why any sane person would vote for Obama. I have heard the same misconceptions so many times from so many ordinary people that I do understand it. And I lay the blame at the feet of the dishonest media.
Glennon 03 Nov 2008 at 10:26 am 31Today’s Fox News poll shows Obama ahead of McCain by seven points. That’s very typical of today’s polls. Obama leads McCain in every toss-up state. McCain leads Obama by a VERY slender margin in Indiana.
No, we are not winning.
Millions of people are becoming very excited by Coal-Gate and Aunti-Gate. Those people were all going to vote for McCain anyhow.
Please, I’m begging here, on Wednesday, please don’t start howling like a bunch of moonbats, “We won but they stole it from us!” or “Today marks the death of democracy in America,” or “But how could he have won when his friends bombed the Pentagon? His friends bombed the Pentagon, for heaven’s sake!!” It’s embarrassing.
Mike Kriskeyon 03 Nov 2008 at 10:52 am 32Well, Glenn, it’s possible that I’m wrong about your motivation. But while there are a couple of people here whose preferred method of argumentation involves the hurling of bricks, I think for the most part conservatives on this site love to engage liberals who are interested in an honest debate.
If Obama wins, I would agree with you that the fault would lie with the dishonest media—but I’d save some sackcloth and a bucket of ashes for the Republicans in Congress who forgot what it means to be conservative.
I don’t think anyone who posts here regularly has expressed the belief that if Obama wins that “democracy is dead”—if Obama wins, then democracy has spoken. Nor has anyone seriously held that people in this country are “stupid” if they vote for Obama—they may have been duped, but that doesn’t make them dopes. I don’t like blaming the victims.
As for “they stole the election,” that would depend on the situation. If this election is the landslide you are predicting (and again, I may be wrong but it seems you are gleefully predicting it), then I do not see how that claim could be seriously defended. On the other hand, in a close election it would be hard to ignore Obama’s $800,000+ donation to ACORN—those busy little beavers—or the millions and millions of dollars donated through the internet with absolutely no identification checks to weed out illegal contributions.
So, we’ll just have to see how this plays out on that last one.
–Mike
P.S. Thank you for not using big fancy words, but I wish you had answered the only question I asked you.
Glennon 03 Nov 2008 at 10:57 am 33Below is a link to an article from the British press (it’s fair, not a hit piece or a puff piece).
We’re placing our hope in the existence of a large “spiral of silence” as the author describes. Such a thing may exist - or it may not. We have no evidence either way. To believe, at this point, that Mac will win is a leap of faith - and by “faith” I mean no tangible evidence.
So he may win! My point? If he does not (and this is for you, Steph) don’t howl like a moonbat.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/us_elections/article5068612.ece
Glennon 03 Nov 2008 at 11:06 am 34Mike, the answer to your question: pollsters already message the data based on an estimate of turnout. I think DH mentioned this a couple of days ago. Different polls use different estimates of how each demographic group will perform in terms of turnout (percentage of registered voters who actually vote).
Blacks and under-30 voters have high rates of registering but not actually voting. All polls try to correct for this, and this year they have increased the correction factor - but how much it should be increased is just an estimate. They could be way off. I, personally, believe they are underestimating the black turnout - that’s my gut, I have no evidence.
A lot of the polls are fudged. The media is deliberately slanting a lot of them. But the fact is that unless all of the polls are way off in Mac’s favor, he won’t get near 270 EVs.
Stephanieon 03 Nov 2008 at 11:18 am 35Glenn you have no clue. Not one. Damn someone needs to slap you silly. Jack where are you? Hit him with a beer bottle for me. Christ sakes.
Glenn you sound like an astroturfer. McCain’s numbers are bugging you aren’t they. If I told you what inside polling was showing in PA you would shut your GD mouth right now. You have no clue, not one and here you are spouting gloom and doom? Why because I am now doubting your conservative creds. I have other reasons to doubt it to. Astroturfer.
Glennon 03 Nov 2008 at 11:50 am 36Here we are, Tuesday night:
(all times eastern standard)
8:17pm CNN calls Pennsylvania for John McCain
8:40pm ABC News calls Ohio for John McCain
9:55pm CNN calls Virginia for John McCain
10:10pm CBS News calls Florida for John McCain
11:22pm CNN calls California for Barack Obama, giving him a total of 289 electoral votes. Barack Obama wins the presidency.
Steph is almost exhausted from two hours of hysterical celebration. She’s well into her second bottle of champaign. After all, Mac has taken PA, OH, FL, and VA. So what can possibly go wrong?
It’s the tyranny of the numbers.
Look, I voted for Mac last week (CA allows permanent by-mail voting). I know I’m not changing any minds here - that’s not my intent. I’m happy because I know it won’t be as much of a total defeat as it was shaping up to be next week.
I plan to go to Ralph’s in a few hours and pick up one bottle each of champaigne and . . . vodka. Sometime after midnight tomorrow, one bottle will be open and one won’t.