Fox Poll: Already Voted O 48% - M 47% — Where Is Obama’s Blow Out?
Posted by Dirty Harry on Monday, November 3rd, 2008
I’m so confused.
Today’s Fox News poll: O 50% - M 43%.
And yet, that same poll shows Obama only at plus-one with those who have already voted.
That same poll weights Democrats +7%.
Do you buy this:
Among men, Obama leads by 50-43 percent. Bush won men by 11 points in both 2000 and 2004.
See what I’m driving at here? And if Obama is only ahead one-point with those who have already voted, where’s the enthusiasm that justifies a +7% weighting towards Democrats?
I’m not hanging on to hope, I’m hanging on to logic.
Filed in General |
dudesaplentyon 03 Nov 2008 at 11:11 am 1If these early voting numbers are correct o is gonna lose big.
David123456on 03 Nov 2008 at 11:11 am 2Makes sense to me!
Sawbuckon 03 Nov 2008 at 11:14 am 3DH - Enough with your Jedi mind tricks! My mind is made up as to the actual outcome - Stop confusing me with logic and facts!
Sorry I was channelling the MSM there for a moment.
This is why my nagging BS meter alarm has been screeching for the last 18 months.
Garbage in equals garbage out. PERIOD.
Stephanieon 03 Nov 2008 at 11:15 am 4If you look at the early voting numbers…I wanted to show this to you DH and you got it anyway…awesome….you will see Obama is going to lose this thing. No one I know here in Florida has even voted yet and they are all GOPERS. I am so friggen energized.
gmkon 03 Nov 2008 at 11:16 am 5Does early voting include the ACORN fraud or is that not rolled in yet?
Dougon 03 Nov 2008 at 11:22 am 6Now we know what Obama meant when he says, “Everyone will have to sacrifice.”
He means we’ll have to turn our lights off: that’s what bankrupting coal means.
How can someone who’s words are as shifty as quicksand - far shiftier than any other modern politician - be on top of a major political party’s ticket? It’s shameful that the Democrats selected him.
First he says he will fund clean coal research projects like FutureGen in his home state (and in my home town). He admits there is more energy available from coal in Illinois (let alone the other coal-producing states) than in all the (stated) oil reserves of Saudi Arabia.
But next he says he wants to bankrupt the coal industry and turn lights out in America.
First he wants to run a transparent campaign, and then he expels journalists whose employers endorsed McCain.
His words are meaningless - his governance will be post-modern and the contrast to the current President who means (and does) what he says cannot be starker. We cannot let this happen: VOTE!
dudesaplentyon 03 Nov 2008 at 11:27 am 7gmk if they did O we be President of all 57 States and the Universe.
Ohio Wolverine Momon 03 Nov 2008 at 11:28 am 8Every 4 years, we let the Democrats party and have delusions of grandeur….and we pull the rug out from under them.
Their enjoyment is almost over.
But our work is only beginning.
We have to develop concrete plans to revitalize conservatism
We also have to work on cleaning up voting rules so that every vote counts—and only once.
We have to revamp the primary system—why not one day universal primary in May/June?
Very heartened when I stopped by the phone bank today—all volunteers, and all young people.
abeon 03 Nov 2008 at 11:37 am 9Stephanie has now, for hundreds of comments, asserted that Obama is going to lose.
Hey Stephanie, if your assertion doesn’t come true, you do realize that you will lose all credibility, right?
DH has never claimed that McCain is definately going to win. I’ve never claimed that Obama would win either. You and Jack Marino on the other hand have been utterly cocksure and LOUD in your predictions that McCain will defeat Obama.
If your prediction doesn’t hold out, then you will look like fools (well, more so anyway) and any OTHER predictions you make on this board will have no credibility whatsoever. But I suppose I’m being pretty generous in assuming that you care about having any credibility.
Stephanieon 03 Nov 2008 at 11:40 am 10Abe mommy let you post today AWESOME. Loser.
pandaxon 03 Nov 2008 at 11:45 am 11Stephanie
I’m taking a page from abe and the liberals. I say his last comment is sexist and bigoted. But understand if Obama loses he knows your gonna cram it so far down his throat it’s gonna come out his butt. So that’s added reason (other then being a liberal stooge) for him to want Obama not to lose.
Mike Kriskeyon 03 Nov 2008 at 11:46 am 12…a little hope never hurt anybody, though.
abeon 03 Nov 2008 at 11:47 am 13Q.E.D
You really have nothing to say to my smackdown of a post. You’ve put yourself in a corner, you insufferable airhead.
Stephanieon 03 Nov 2008 at 11:52 am 14Abe when you finally feel the touch of a real woman, not your blow up doll will you please tell us.
Airhead? Awesome. Wow…what a crushing comeback. Hahahahahaha….If you were lint you would have been flicked off my Anne Klein suit.
pandaxon 03 Nov 2008 at 11:55 am 15Stephanie
Told you he was a sexist bigot.
abeon 03 Nov 2008 at 11:55 am 16In all fairness, I also called you “insufferable.” Funny that you ignored that.
Lexingtonon 03 Nov 2008 at 11:56 am 17“And if Obama is only ahead one-point with those who have already voted, where’s the enthusiasm that justifies a +7% weighting towards Democrats?”
http://www.ncsl.org/programs/legismgt/elect/absentearly.htm
I haven’t run the population numbers to be sure, but from a quick look at that chart, I’m pretty sure that the makeup of states that vote early reflects a much more Republican-leaning population than the US as a whole. Most of New England, specifically, lacks early voting. So, there’s your explanation.
GMKon 03 Nov 2008 at 12:20 pm 18There’s nothing typical about this election. How anybody can think there’s any reliable way to use polling to figure out what is going to happen is beyond me. Gee, we don’t know what to do with the bradley effect, so let’s ignore it even though it’s been huge and decisive in the past. Let’s all just pretend we’re past race and that Obama can carry the white working class vote.
There’s never been an election anything like this one, ever. Pollsters have to make educated guesses, right from the heart of liberal strongholds they live in. Everything I’m seeing around me says they’re getting it very wrong. Everybody seems worried but I seriously am not.
Stephanieon 03 Nov 2008 at 12:21 pm 19Abe that coming from you is like sunshine. Do you think I give a care what you think? WRONG. What a total loser. Did me and the girls here ever run into you at a bar and jointly dump cosmos on your head?
Lexi…still no word about supporting a man endorsed by Hezbollah…………wow.
Ohio Wolverine Momon 03 Nov 2008 at 12:26 pm 20GMK—thanks; since you are in the Michigan county that has been a bellwether for elections, it makes me feel goodto know that there are some Michiganians who are no longer listening to their union bosses and voting against their self-interest.
I got a chill up my spine reading your previous post—with Dems controlling all three branches, these obnoxious twerps would not even both with pretense in using their intimidating tactics.
thudon 03 Nov 2008 at 12:42 pm 21Abe… if Steph is wrong then I’m sure she will as she says..cowboy up…and continue to fight the good fight…we conservatives are made of pretty strong stuff..our women especially….but then I don’t think she is wrong…it’s all to play for.
Growltigeron 03 Nov 2008 at 1:16 pm 22GMIK has it right. The pollsters are polling new territory (pun intended). The Bradley Effect is real. Then there is the Spiral of Silence. Leftists are pretty whacked out these days, so who in their right mind wants to engage them? So we just smile and nod our heads and pretend to agree all the while scouting the nearest exit. We have one in our neighborhood. She thinks she’s so cool and with it, but people just kind of roll their eyes and discount anything she says since she hasn’t had an original thought since 1985. Blue collar workers are not going to vote for Obama no matter what they tell Gallup or Rassie. Any Jew with a functioning neuron is going to wonder if s/he really wants someone close to Farrakhan in the WH. Biden’s comment about “stick with us because it won’t be immediately apparent that we’re right in what we do” (with ref. to the “crisis” he says Obama will have). Can Jews take the chance that he isn’t talking about abandoning Israel? Israelis certainly think that’s a possibility. By the way, where is Biden? Haven’t heard from him since he said this. The only positive sign I see out there favoring an Obama victory is the voter fraud going on in OH and VA to name two. Obama’s drawing big crowds to his OH rallies. Are they being bused in?
This is an historic election; there is no way for the pollsters to gauge it. Frankly, I’m surprised they’re even trying.
Carolon 03 Nov 2008 at 1:16 pm 23A pundit on MSNBC said that the reason McCain is ahead by one point among the early voters is because young people do not vote early. And young people will vote for Obama.
Craig Ton 03 Nov 2008 at 1:26 pm 24Yo Doug from FutureGen hometown. That’s Mattoon, right? My hometown as well. Freaky small world.
Ohio Wolverine Momon 03 Nov 2008 at 1:27 pm 25Not the young people at my local GOTV office…
or my church (Catholic)….
or older siblings of kids at our school…
what kids are going to vote—45%?
In 2004, it was to stop the war—but they didn’t turn out, even though they were suppose to “Rock the Vote”
In 2000, to put Saint Albertus of the Mother Earth into office, they were going to turn out in record numbers….still waiting.
Young people of this generation are here because their parents chose life, and that does have an impact.
David123456on 03 Nov 2008 at 1:29 pm 26A pundit on MSNBC said that the reason McCain is ahead by one point among the early voters is because young people do not vote early. And young people will vote for Obama.
They don’t vote at all, let alone vote early. So I’d say we got at least a 50/50 chance at pulling this off.
Dougon 03 Nov 2008 at 1:40 pm 27Craig T- Yeup. Small world indeed. Wow!
gmkon 03 Nov 2008 at 1:49 pm 28Another observation– anybody else noticing that the people in their world who are voting Obama, unlike people voting Dem in past elections, are people who are noticably deficient in character in general? All the ones I know of are belligerent, unpleasant, responsibility-externalizing dummies. I wouldn’t have characterized 2004 Democrats that way, but the Obama loudmouths all seem like the kinds of people who would sign up to be the barracks leader in a concentration camp. And likewise they don’t seem to be that prevalent.
Kiton 03 Nov 2008 at 1:50 pm 29Well, I’m a young person who plans on voting tomorrow for . . .
JOHN McCAIN!!!
Carolynon 03 Nov 2008 at 1:52 pm 30NEVER in all my life have I seen an election so one-sided as this. ALL of the media, all of the money, the glory, the fawning adulation - all of it, ALL of it has gone to Obama. I’m not talking a smidgen, a little dab here or there - no, I’m talking an AVALANCHE, a TSUNAMI of adulation and money. And let’s not forget corrupted polls. Oh, yeah, yeah, HUGE corruption.
And yet?
Obama’s barely a teensy point ahead. In fact, Drudge says he’s TIED? This little jug-eared, Marxist, racist shit has blasted light years ahead of McCain? With all that corruption, power, money, propaganda, McCain should be buried so far beneath the Messiah’s gargantuan poll numbers that you’d need to dig down for a month to find McCain. I mean, McCain should be so far behind that Palin would have to send Todd out on his snowmobile (with extra rations) to find him.
All this and the Messiah isn’t on the mountain top?
Folks - this can only mean that tomorrow the votes will place the Messiah and his followers so far beneath ocean level that, as my old attorney used to say, ‘he’s whale poopoo at the bottom of the ocean’.
Major Grahamon 03 Nov 2008 at 1:54 pm 31“The latest IBD poll has McCain with larger leads among Catholics and Protestants than Bush won them by, and they made up 81% of the electorate in 2004.”
From Ace’s site
Carolynon 03 Nov 2008 at 1:55 pm 32abe - PLEASE get your mom to buy you a new blow-up doll. It’s clear your old one not only popped but blew helium back up into your brain (as you were bent down in that position you learned from looking through the keyhole at the tender age of 19).
Sharon Fergusonon 03 Nov 2008 at 2:29 pm 33Well, abe, apparently we’re not too insufferable, because you’re still here. And we tolerate a lot from you as no one has thought you important enough to ban. Abuse away. We know who the real bigots are (you and Obama, for starters)
T.S.Benchon 03 Nov 2008 at 2:38 pm 34……abe - PLEASE get your mom to buy you a new blow-up doll. It’s clear your old one not only popped but blew helium back up into your brain (as you were bent down in that position you learned from looking through the keyhole at the tender age of 19)……
I don’t understand this race-to-the-bottom engaged in by some of the female posters on this board. Do you think trying to emulate the board’s most notorious lightweight makes you look tough? Insightful? Thoughtful? Witty?
I’ve never met anyone who ever won an argument, or been persuasive or successful at anything, by positioning themselves as a low-rent vulgarian. This board certainly hasn’t done anything to change that.
Regards,
TSB
Stephanieon 03 Nov 2008 at 2:45 pm 35I guess that must be me right TSB, spoken like a true insecure man. What a prick….
Anyway here is a great story by Delroy Murdoch…..
And for the girls, the Navy Seal in the story is a HOTTIE!
http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=YWNmZDQ4MWE2OTFkOGZlMThmZDJkMWNhNDdhY2UzMWI
gmkon 03 Nov 2008 at 2:48 pm 36I’m a vulgarian and I got the biggest can of rhetorical whoopass in three counties.
I’m going to go get loaded. I’ll check in with you people tomorrow and we can either celebrate the survival of the Republic or I can start teaching you how to use PGP to encrypt your emails.
T.S.Benchon 03 Nov 2008 at 3:10 pm 37…..I guess that must be me right TSB,…..
You mean “the board’s most notorious lightweight?”
That goes without saying.
……spoken like a true insecure man. What a prick….
And you keep proving my point. If you didn’t exist, people would accuse me of inventing you.
Regards,
TSB
laconicon 03 Nov 2008 at 3:13 pm 38Leave ABE alone, under the new McCain presidency we will try to be much kinder and more tolerant of others, and that includes the simple minded.
romanon 03 Nov 2008 at 4:00 pm 39Tomorrow won’t be a complete rejection of you and your values. I say that only because it might appear that way.
http://www.rove.com/election
Bear in mind how off he was two years ago. He’s being very generous to you here. There is the definite possibility of absolute humiliation for the GOP tomorrow.
For the sake of McCain’s legacy, I hope he can keep it close.
Aitch748on 03 Nov 2008 at 4:21 pm 40This guy is actually predicting a McCain-Palin landslide. (From your keyboard to God’s ears, pal.
)
http://www.marstonchronicles.info/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=95&Itemid=119
Stephanieon 03 Nov 2008 at 4:44 pm 41Aitch that is a bitchen link man! Awesome!
Stephanieon 03 Nov 2008 at 4:46 pm 42Hey Roman I am folding over four fingers and sticking a middle one up at you. You are reaching wussy. AND btw how come you never answer anyones questions? Oh yeah I forget your a leftist and you are too stupid to answer questions you just sit there and spew the crap you have been spoon fed by your masters who think you are too stupid to think for yourself, which, in fact YOU ARE!
Jack Marinoon 03 Nov 2008 at 6:57 pm 43There is NO Obama blowout, like there was no Kerry, Gore, McGovern, Humphery, Carter even the great God clinton, who only won because Perot was in the equation. All the pundits on the left are wrong. The dems never learn and what the will never understand is that these commie extortionist are selling something America isn’t buying, except for the MOOCHERS and SLACKERS who feed off the achievers. The achievers are FED up and we will REJECT this entire leftist wet dream they have for their Messiah Armen RA of Chicago thugery
gmkon 03 Nov 2008 at 7:09 pm 44So earlier today I mentioned my best friend works for a food service outlet where nobody is voting Obama. I am half in the bag home from the bar, and my buddy (who is married and is now my roommate, I am divorced and moved in with them so I don’t die of loneliness) engages me with this story: the detroit Democratic party had ordered 10,000 hodtogs and buns for today, which were to be picked up by a contractor, who got stood up by the party for payment Saturday, then today, and then they just up and cancelled today and said they didn’t want the hotdogs and stuck GFS with the unfrozen hotdogs (democrats remember, scumbags who don’t care) and buns.
The fun part is, why would the hippies not want the hotdogs anymore? I know why, do you?
Jack Marinoon 03 Nov 2008 at 8:09 pm 45Abe, I have predicted on every presidential election since Nixon beat Humphrey. I even predicted carter would win and then Ronnie will bury him. The only time I had doubts was with Clinton, Bush and Perot. That was a three man race and there was no precedent on how many votes perot would take away from both candidates. When perot dropped out I said then , that it was a fix and clinton was going to squeak by. I said then that Bush would beat Gore and kerry and I say McCain will win this election.
Abe you are a kid and a cool aid drinker, you have no idea how politics works, you eat the fried ice cream that pours out of your TV and and you live and died by the polls. The POLLS are all bullshit and have been since Nixon first beat McGovern. Every leftist son of a bitch that works in the media, the pundits have for years predicted these huge wins for the democrats and republicans have always won. You don’t understand how this ball game is played, you haven’t lived long enough to read the signs I have been telling everyone here to read. You live and die by the polls which are all fixed by the democrats.
Tomorrow, McCain is going to win, how big I can’t read it because of the massive voter fraud create by acorn and the entire democratic party. The democrats always try to steal elections. This one is the first that it is this massive. The democrats can never win elections in a fair elections, I know, because I worked them in Boston while you were a twinkle in your old man’s eye.
You believe that America thinks like you and that most of America is liberal, when that isn’t the reality. Every conservative president has proven this time and time again. The congress flips back and fourth because the republicans are all over the conservative landscape, while Democrats are all the same, even if they hate each other they have a common goal which is total power at any cost. Republicans are not this way and will eat their own, even in congress and even here on this blogs and conservative groups. Until we conservatives act and fight like democrats we will never control the congress and make the changes we conservatives want to see. We have to many conservatives who want to reach out to democrats and think they can work with animals.
Bush made this mistake and so have McCain. You can’t negotiate with Democrats, I have seen them at their best. They only respect when you beat the shit out of them and strip them of their power and while they are down, you kick the shit out of them. Then they respect you as a political force. They will whine and scream like a stuck pig while you treat them this way, but if you let your guard down, they will rape you and piss on you when they are through and that is what they call bipartisan. If you don’t believe me. when the Dems get a 60 seat majority and control the house, watch how they treat the minority republicans and how they change the house rules so the republicans can fart without getting permission. This is real politics, not the bullshit you believe in and see on TV. That is all a dog and pony show and in the real world off the TV, this is about power and going after as much of our hard earn money as they can.
Now, I do wish for a HUGE rejection of this radical chicago thug who has no sense of history, economics and he is the dumbest puppet ever to get this close to the White House. I believe Obama is being used by the people that run the democratic party as a sacrificial lamb. Not Dean and these people we see on TV. I am talking the Big City power brokers that get the pay off when Democratic candidates get elected and raise taxes. You ever asked yourself why democrats raise taxes once they win the White House? They have to pay off all the Big City mayors and their machines for bringing in the vote. This is how the democratic party is set up. The republican party isn’t set up this way, its fractured, the democrats are set up like organized crime, pay offs and protection money via OUR TAXES and entitlements. The entitlements are given to the voters for their votes to keep the democrats in power. It is a vicious cycle and it has been going on since when the Irish took over big city politics.
You think you will learn this stuff in college or do you think a dumb shit like Oberman understands this machine and how it works. When you run a political campaign for city council in a city outside the boston area and you have to deal with the Kennedy machine like one deals with the Godfather, you learn just how this shit really works.
You have no freaking idea what world you are in and how politics work. back in a city like Boston, congressional seats are OWNED by what they use to call ward bosses. They decide who sits and for how long, not the people. So you keep eating your friend ice cream and drinking the crap coming out of your Tv and make all your opinions based on what a dumb shit Brokaw, Oberman and the rest of the pundits say.
In the meantime, Conservatives out there, Dem, Reps and Indies, both white and black will come out in mass and vote for McCain and over ride all this fraud, all the predictions of the democrats who are always so wrong. They will come out because it is these conservatives that own homes, pay the taxes and make this country the power it really is. They came out in 72 and gave Nixon 49 states. They came out in 80 and gave Reagan 49 states. They came out in 2000 and gave Bush his victory and in 2006 they gave Bush 3.5 million votes when Kerry was predicted the winner. Now, this is all going to change because this clown says change, and YOU are marching to the messiah’s orders like SS men in those old films and its all a dog and pony. The conservatives lay low and tomorrow they will come out, no matter how the media plays it down and how they fudge the polls, the facts and everything they can, but in the wee hours of the morning it is always a republican that wins and wins big.
I feel McCain has been ahead in the polls and they won’t let us see it. When Carter ran against Reagn, he was 20 points ahead of Reagan. Kerry was 12 points ahead of Bush. McCain and Obama are a point of a few points between them. This has never happen before. So it could be the truth or McCain is a lot further ahead then the media wants us to know. I believe the Dems are setting up Obama for a fall because they want control of the congress and they can put Hillary in the White House in 2012.
YOu may learn how this works, but you have to step back and stop taking the democratic drip and things will come into focus
Glennon 03 Nov 2008 at 8:21 pm 46I believe that if Obama wins, all we need to do is forward him some of Jack’s posts. After he reads them, he will reject his victory and concede the election to McCain.
Jack Marinoon 03 Nov 2008 at 10:45 pm 47IF i had that kind of persavive power Glenn, I would have sold my film to a major studio in 1990 and I’d be on my 20th studio level film, funded in the private sector and I would have made a film this year, exposing the liberal media, and Clinton called ‘BUBBA’.
I’d be the darling of the conservatives because I don’t care about getting invited to any Hollywood event or rubbing up against these leftist in this business. Unless I find a young Sophia Loren, hell she still looks great today!
I only want to make films that expose the left and their ideology for the fraud it is.
But then again Glenn, if we forward all your post to Obama, he might get so depress by the 1984 world you see coming he might commit suicide and you then can change the course of history.
Glennon 03 Nov 2008 at 11:05 pm 48Obama would love the world I dread is coming - he sees himself as president (or Grand Poobah or whatever) of the Planet Earth. The Top Marxist overseeing the demise of the USA and its absorbtion into the Community of Nations.
If Mac wins, would someone please come down to LA county jail and bail me out? I’m going to drink my champaigne and yell obscenities at Santa Monica from my balcony all night long.
And please don’t take your time about it. How long do you think I’m going to last in LACJ wearing a Mac&Sarah shirt?